Uh oh...Oklahoma is not OK!

Oklahoma's tough new immigration reform law could cut the state's economic production by $1.8 billion in the measure's first year, according to a study released today.

If HB 1804, labeled as the nation's toughest immigration law, drives 50,000 foreign-born workers out of Oklahoma, it would cause a 1.3 percent reduction in the gross state product, the report from Economic Impact Group LLC said. The Oklahoma Bankers Association commissioned the report by the Edmond company. However, bankers association chief executive officer Roger Beverage said his group takes no position on HB 1804.

The study estimated the long-term impact of the bill could be about $1.3 billion a year. Oklahoma's gross state product in 2007 was estimated at nearly $144 billion. Sen. Harry Coates, R-Seminole, said a study of the measure's potential impact should have been performed before the Legislature adopted HB 1804 last year.

"We acted too quickly," Coates said. "We passed the toughest immigration reform bill in the country, but this was the result."


The study was conducted by the Economic Impact Group LLC of Edmond, which constructed a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of the bill on Oklahoma production.

Key findings and conclusions of the study are:

Oklahoma’s total foreign-born population is estimated to be between 111,000 and 175,000, an estimated 50,000 – 75,000 of whom are “undocumented”.

Of the total foreign-born population, it’s estimated that approximately 103,000 are workers and that approximately two-thirds of this group is classified as low-skilled labor.

The impacts associated with inducing an out-flow of immigrant labor cannot be confined to immigrant communities and industries that primarily employ foreign-born workers.

The complex structure of the State’s economy allows disturbances in one area of the economy to manifest themselves in other areas. The model employed suggests that impacts are spread to skilled labor and industries that rely heavily on low-skilled labor production, regardless of their original inclination to hire immigrant vs. non-immigrant workers.

In the short run, an outflow of approximately 50,000 foreign-born workers (about one-half of all immigrant workers in the state), is estimated to cause a 1.3 percent reduction in gross state product. In terms of Oklahoma’s 2006 production level, this represents a nearly $1.8 Billion economic penalty.

In the long run, some of the impacts of the out-migration are offset by new immigration. Given this adjustment period, the model predicts long run recurring reductions of nearly 1 percent in gross state product, or nearly $1.3 Billion in terms of 2006 production.

Both the estimated short-run and long-run impacts are consistent with similar analyses performed recently for the State of Texas.

The full report can be found here: http://www.oba.com/usr_uploads/EIGreport.pdf